All recent polls show Clinton to lead Obama, all within single digits, and a few within the margin of error. The good news is that the poll models are inadequate, because turnout is expected to be larger than in the past. This could bode a solid victory for Clinton, or perhaps a win for Obama. Tea leaves will probably be more accurate.
My gut tells me that Clinton will eke out a win. The simple truth is that she has the backing of the Nevada democratic establishment. I suspect, however, that the win will be marred by a strong second place finish by Obama. It won't be dramatic. Since Obama hasn't resorted to
dirty tactics in Nevada, he will likely emerge as the lovable loser. I say this as a matter of pride.
I'm one of those sucker's that believes that good will triumph over evil in the end.
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