I haven't done much blogging as of late--at least on my own site. I've done considerable elsewhere: sparring, parrying, and dodging on behalf of Obama. The time is late and Tuesday approaches fiercely, stridently.
The polls are all over the place. One thing is apparent: Obama is surging. Unfortunately for California, nearly 40% (stat based on projection by political director of the Sacramento Bee) have already voted early. Which means, Hillary probably has a 10 point advantage on those early votes. Therefore, my sincere hope is that Obama ends the day Tuesday with a 5-10 deficit against Hillary. This will keep him competitive and assure him a sizable apportionment of the available delegates.
Other states are more hopeful. Utah is surging for Obama, Georgia is in Obama's column, Colorado and Idaho look good, Connecticut is trending towards Obama, and he is closing the gap mightily in NJ.
My projection, and fervent hope, is that there is a 52/48 divide in delegates come Wednesday. This would keep Obama competitive when he moves into more friendly territory for the later February states.
Both candidates are waging good campaigns. Hillary is running a positive campaign and isn't being upstaged by Bill, and Obama has sharpened his message and is focusing on electibility.
Time will tell. I'm feeling very good with the trends. We'll see if they translate into votes.
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