And the winner is...

The American people. Last night's historic democratic primary in South Carolina was like a breath of fresh air after being entrapped in a rendering factory. After all the smears, character attacks, robocalls, and the oxygen sucking hysteria of Bill Clinton, Barack Obama comes out on top. And what a top it is! 55% of the vote! More people voted for Barack Obama last night than voted for all the SC democratic candidates in 2004 combined!

Word is coming in that Ed Kennedy, the liberal lion, is endorsing Obama. The Clinton camp is in full damage control mode. All is well.

Lord knows how this will all pan out, but for now, I'm optimistic. After four years of republican misrule, a light shines in the darkness...

Identity Politics and the Race Card

Clinton said the following today (as reported by the AP):

"As far as I can tell, neither Senator Obama nor Hillary have lost votes because of their race or gender. They are getting votes, to be sure, because of their race or gender — that's why people tell me Hillary doesn't have a chance of winning here," Clinton said. "But that's understandable because people are proud when someone who they identify with emerges for the first time."

If anyone was wondering how the Clinton's will frame their pending loss in SC, the aforementioned is the preview. You see, people in SC aren't voting for Hillary because she's white. They are voting for Obama because he's black. I guess black women who are voting for Obama value their race over their gender. I suppose we'll have to ask Bill what he thinks about that.

Clash of the Titans

If anyone imagined that Obama didn't have the nads to frontally assault Hillary need only to watch about a thousand video clips circulating on the internet. This was a slugfest, folks. One that was a long time coming if you, like me, are an Obama supporter.

To be fair, they both took hits. Edwards certainly capitalized on the fracas, appearing more Presidential as the two duked it out, but it was Obama and Clinton that dominated the stage. Edwards lamented that fact on several occasions during the debate. Sorry John, your best showing has been second place thus far, and you lost by nearly 40 points in Nevada. After SC it's time to call it a day.

I thought Obama made the case for his candidacy in the most forceful terms during the debate, and even during the most heated exchanges he maintained his composure, and civilly drilled away at the Clinton talking points over the last two weeks. SC is Obama's to lose. He really should simply start thinking about Tsunami Tuesday.

Hillary was most articulate and persuasive when talking about health care. She framed it brilliantly as a shared responsibility. It was during the health care moments where I saw Obama's achilles heel. Whereas, in effect, Obama, Edwards, and Hillary's plans are fundamentally the same. Hillary's and Edwards hold greater rhetorical power--the whole "universal" (read: mandate) thing. Obama doesn't believe that adults should be mandated to purchase government health care. Edwards made the most serious counterargument by suggesting that Obama's "choice" rhetoric is similar to Bush's "choice" rhetoric regarding social security reform. Although I think this flawed, it was powerful. Clearly Obama wasn't prepared for this line of reasoning. My take is that Obama is building upon the foundation already in place (health care), whereas Bush attempted to dismantle the foundation (social security). It's not a one for one correspondence as Edwards would have you believe, but it was a visceral argument tying Obama to Bush in an interesting way. Obama will have to challenge this point.

It is my view that Hillary's health care plan will be more attractive to the democratic base and Obama's health care plan will be more attractive to a general election audience. But you have to get through the democratic base to get to the general election. It will be a long, hard slog.

I'm not a dewy eyed idealist. I know that Obama is a long shot for the nomination. All the Powers That Be are arrayed against him and for Clinton. The fact that he is even CLOSE is the story of the hour. Hillary is a flawed candidate. If she gets the nomination for the democrats, and McCain gets the nomination for the republicans, the republicans get another four year shot at the white house.

In summary, I thought Obama won the debate. He was strong, articulate, principled, and knowledgeable. His comments about transcending race were powerful. He is the best democratic hope to unite the country behind a common agenda--a fundamentally democratic agenda. It remains to be seen how this plays out. Regardless, he is fighting the good fight and doing it with class and conviction.

Recent Polling in Nevada

All recent polls show Clinton to lead Obama, all within single digits, and a few within the margin of error. The good news is that the poll models are inadequate, because turnout is expected to be larger than in the past. This could bode a solid victory for Clinton, or perhaps a win for Obama. Tea leaves will probably be more accurate.

My gut tells me that Clinton will eke out a win. The simple truth is that she has the backing of the Nevada democratic establishment. I suspect, however, that the win will be marred by a strong second place finish by Obama. It won't be dramatic. Since Obama hasn't resorted to
dirty tactics in Nevada, he will likely emerge as the lovable loser. I say this as a matter of pride.

I'm one of those sucker's that believes that good will triumph over evil in the end.

Bob does the right thing.

Robert L Johnson, who I condemned in an earlier post for referring to Obama's drug use at a Clinton campaign rally in SC, has done the right thing and apologized to Obama. He should also apologize for the lame press release amending his remarks suggesting that he was actually referring to Obama's community organizing.

Since he is admitting that he was referring to Obama's drug use, doesn't that mean he's being "irresponsible and incorrect"? Ah, but I digress, and should be content that he saw the error of his ways.

Serving Justice Culinary Style

The Clinton Machine suffered judicial defeat when the lawsuit spawned by their surrogates sputtered and died in Federal Court. The Culinary Worker's Union will have their voices heard, which is good for Nevada and good for America.

Every Vote Should Count

After the 2000 debacle, where obfuscation and intimidation and disenfranchisement in Florida resulted in George W. Bush's elevation to the Presidency by the Supreme Court; you'd think that democrats would be unified in one common purpose: ensuring everyone has the opportunity to have their voice heard.

That may be the case in general, except when allowing easy access to caucus sites benefits your competitor.

In March of this year, the Nevada state democratic party approved of At-Large caucus sites located on the Las Vegas strip to facilitate voter turnout for the powerful Culinary Union member's who will be working on the day of the caucus. In August, the DNC's Rules and Bylaw's committee approved the plan. The process was completely transparent from the outset. Nary a word of protest was heard until the Culinary Union unexpectedly endorsed Barack Obama. Within two days a lawsuit was filed by a powerful Teacher's Union whose senior membership supports Hillary Clinton for President, declaring that the special rules are unconstitutional. This lawsuit, if not ended or resolved, threatens the viability of these sites and the ability of thousands of worker's to participate in the democratic process.

Disenfranchisement is the water that Karl Rove and his cronies swim in, but it is particularly troubling to be a tactic employed by the Clinton Machine, who are ostensibly representing the party still reeling from the Florida fiasco. President Bill Clinton, the de-facto running mate for Hillary Rodham Clinton, has expressed his support for the lawsuit. Apparently for no other reason than the hardships that would be created if the lawsuit succeeds benefit his wife.

It is time for this non-sense to stop. The time to question, debate, and challenge these rules has long since passed. The Nevada democratic party and DNC have spoken, now let the workers of the Culinary Union have their voice.

UPDATE: John Kerry wrote a brilliant piece for TPM about this issue.